November 2025 marked a transition from an AI-and-megacap–dominated tape toward a more balanced market structure. What appeared, at first glance, to be a “risk-off” move was in fact much more nuanced: a targeted valuation reset in crowded artificial intelligence and high-growth technology names, alongside improving relative strength in underappreciated sectors such as healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financials.
At the macro level, a more dovish tone from the New York Fed governor sharply increased the implied probability of a December rate cut—from below 50% to roughly 70%—easing pressure on discount rates and supporting the historical pattern of seasonally strong markets into year-end.
Against this backdrop, we revisit a recurring investor question: Is Bitcoin the new gold? Using data from January 2017 through January 2026, we examine how Bitcoin and gold have behaved relative to inflation and the U.S. dollar. The conclusion is clear but often overlooked:
Bitcoin behaves primarily as a high-beta risk asset driven by idiosyncratic events.
Gold, while imperfect, still behaves more like a long-term store of value and partial alternative to the U.S. dollar.
Neither asset has delivered on the popular narrative of a reliable, systematic inflation hedge.
1. November’s Pullback: A Valuation Regime Shift, Not a Crisis
The recent pullback has been disproportionately concentrated in the inflated AI and high-growth tech names that led performance year-to-date. These were precisely the stocks that benefited from an extraordinary combination of narrative momentum, index concentration, and multiple expansion as investors extrapolated early AI productivity gains far into the future.
1.1 Healthy Versus Harmful Corrections
From a “deep think” perspective, the critical task is to distinguish a healthy correction from the early stages of systemic stress. Several dynamics argue strongly for the former:
Concentration of Declines:
Price damage has been focused in the most crowded AI software, semiconductor, and megacap growth names. Broader indices, equal-weighted baskets, and value-oriented groups have held up comparatively well. That pattern is characteristic of positioning and valuation resets, not liquidity crises.
Stable Credit Conditions:
There has been no parallel spike in credit spreads, no meaningful deterioration in funding markets, and no sign of balance sheet stress in major financial institutions. True systemic crises almost always originate in, or rapidly transmit through, credit—something we are not seeing.
Rotation, Not Liquidation:
Capital is not fleeing equities wholesale; instead, it is rotating. Underappreciated areas—healthcare, consumer discretionary, financials—have begun to show improving relative performance. This suggests investors are rebalancing toward more reasonably valued earnings streams, not abandoning risk altogether.
In other words, markets are repricing expectations, not rewriting the rules.
1.2 Sector Rotation: From Story to Substance
Throughout much of 2024 and into 2025, returns were heavily skewed toward a narrow group of AI beneficiaries. Now we are seeing:
Healthcare recovering as investors refocus on demographic tailwinds, non-cyclical demand, and innovation in biotech and medical technology that was overshadowed by the AI narrative.
Consumer Discretionary benefiting from moderating inflation and resilient wage growth, which support real consumption even as headline growth normalizes.
Financials finding support from a more supportive rate outlook, a modest steepening in portions of the yield curve, and solid credit quality.
This rotation is constructive: it broadens the leadership of the market and reduces the fragility that comes with extreme concentration in a handful of megacap growth names.
2. The New York Fed and the Path to a December Cut
A key November development was the dovish messaging shift from the New York Fed governor, increasing the probability of a December rate cut to about 70%.
Sentiment Inflection – Investors now see the Fed balancing risks rather than solely fighting inflation.
Seasonality Tailwind – Historically strong December returns + policy support = constructive environment.
Investors should use volatility to rotate into high-quality businesses rather than chase speculative growth moves.
3. Bitcoin vs Gold: What the Last Decade Actually Tells Us
The 2017–2026 period provides an unusually rich dataset because it includes several Bitcoin cycles, a historic inflation regime, multiple policy shifts, and major crypto-specific events. The data contradicts many popular narratives.
3.1 Bitcoin and Inflation: The Hedge That Wasn’t
The 2020–2022 inflation spike should have validated Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative. Instead:
Bitcoin showed negative correlation with inflation.
Bitcoin fell sharply as liquidity tightened—behaving like a speculative tech asset.
Gold underperformed relative to past inflation cycles due to rising real rates.
Figure 1: Neither Bitcoin nor gold reliably tracked inflation during the 2020–2022 spike.
3.2 Bitcoin, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar: A More Plausible, Yet Inconsistent, Story
The dollar narrative is more plausible: both assets often rise when the U.S. dollar weakens.
Dollar Strengthening (May 2021 – Sept 2022)
Bitcoin: negative returns
Gold: negative returns
Dollar Weakening (Sept 2022 – Sept 2023)
Bitcoin: positive returns
Gold: positive returns
But Bitcoin’s movements are far more volatile and often decoupled from the USD due to internal crypto events.
Figure 2: Bitcoin’s relationship to dollar trends is inconsistent; gold follows a more intuitive pattern.
3.3 Idiosyncratic Drivers: Why Bitcoin Is Primarily a Risk Asset
Bitcoin’s major moves are best explained by crypto-specific catalysts:
Positive Drivers
PayPal integration (Oct 2020)
Tesla / MicroStrategy / Square adoption (2020)
Coinbase IPO (Apr 2021)
Spot ETF approvals (Jan 2024)
Halving events (most recently 2024)
Negative Drivers
China mining ban (May 2021)
FTX collapse (Nov 2022)
These events overshadow macro factors like inflation and currency moves, confirming Bitcoin is a high-beta, event-driven asset.
3.4 Gold vs Bitcoin: Correlation, Role, and Reality
The long-term correlation between Bitcoin and gold is only 0.13—functionally uncorrelated.
Gold remains a diversifier and partial store-of-value.
Bitcoin remains a speculative satellite allocation, not a macro hedge.
Recent divergence highlights this reality:
Bitcoin negative YTD in 2024
Gold at all-time highs
4. Strategic Implications for Investors
The pullback is a reset, not a crisis.
Rotate toward sectors with durable earnings and reasonable valuations.
A dovish Fed + seasonality creates a constructive backdrop.
Reframe Bitcoin as high-beta, not a hedge.
Retain gold as a strategic store-of-value tool.
Closing Thoughts
November 2025 reinforces a key investing truth: markets evolve, narratives decay, and data clarifies reality.
The AI-driven rally is maturing. The Fed is shifting toward balance. Bitcoin’s mythos is giving way to empiricism. Investors who distinguish rotation from crisis and ground decisions in evidence—not storylines—will be best positioned for long-term success.
Larry McKay
Larry McKay, CFA, CTFA, is an accomplished entrepreneurial investment executive with extensive experience in strategic leadership and portfolio management. Throughout his career, he has successfully managed $7 billion in multi-asset portfolios and $1.4 billion in single-stock equity investments, serving high-net-worth clients, foundations, and endowments.
His expertise encompasses asset allocation, risk management, and performance optimization across diverse financial instruments. McKay holds esteemed certifications, including the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and the Certified Trust and Fiduciary Advisor (CTFA) credential, underscoring his deep knowledge and ethical standards in investment management. Additionally, he is a FINRA Arbitrator, reflecting his commitment to upholding industry integrity.
McKay is proficient in Spanish, which enhances his ability to serve a diverse clientele. While specific details about his educational background are not publicly available, his professional achievements and certifications speak to a strong foundation in finance and investment principles.
Throughout his career, McKay has been recognized for his strategic insights and leadership acumen, consistently delivering tailored investment solutions that align with clients' long-term objectives. His dedication to excellence and continuous improvement exemplifies his holistic approach to leadership and investment excellence.
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Important Disclaimer
Zynergy Ventures, LLC and Zynergy Holdings, LLC (collectively referred to as "Zynergy") is a private investment firm. This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities. The content herein discusses broad market, industry, or sector trends, as well as general economic, market, or political conditions. It has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any specific investment recommendation.
The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Zynergy. These views are current as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Neither the authors nor Zynergy assumes any obligation to update or revise any statements to reflect new information or future events.
Zynergy and individuals or entities affiliated with it may hold positions in or conduct transactions involving securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. Zynergy may also offer related investment strategies to third parties for compensation within asset classes mentioned or discussed herein.
Investment ideas and concepts mentioned may not be suitable for all investors depending on individual investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances. Margin requirements, transaction costs, commissions, and tax implications should be carefully reviewed with the guidance of qualified investment and tax professionals.
All information contained in this commentary is believed to be accurate and obtained from public sources deemed reliable as of the date of issuance. However, no warranty, express or implied, is provided regarding the completeness or accuracy of such information. Past performance does not predict future returns.
November 2025 Market Commentary: Beyond the Hype Cycle – Market Reset and the Real Role of Bitcoin and Gold
Executive Summary
November 2025 marked a transition from an AI-and-megacap–dominated tape toward a more balanced market structure. What appeared, at first glance, to be a “risk-off” move was in fact much more nuanced: a targeted valuation reset in crowded artificial intelligence and high-growth technology names, alongside improving relative strength in underappreciated sectors such as healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financials.
At the macro level, a more dovish tone from the New York Fed governor sharply increased the implied probability of a December rate cut—from below 50% to roughly 70%—easing pressure on discount rates and supporting the historical pattern of seasonally strong markets into year-end.
Against this backdrop, we revisit a recurring investor question: Is Bitcoin the new gold? Using data from January 2017 through January 2026, we examine how Bitcoin and gold have behaved relative to inflation and the U.S. dollar. The conclusion is clear but often overlooked:
1. November’s Pullback: A Valuation Regime Shift, Not a Crisis
The recent pullback has been disproportionately concentrated in the inflated AI and high-growth tech names that led performance year-to-date. These were precisely the stocks that benefited from an extraordinary combination of narrative momentum, index concentration, and multiple expansion as investors extrapolated early AI productivity gains far into the future.
1.1 Healthy Versus Harmful Corrections
From a “deep think” perspective, the critical task is to distinguish a healthy correction from the early stages of systemic stress. Several dynamics argue strongly for the former:
In other words, markets are repricing expectations, not rewriting the rules.
1.2 Sector Rotation: From Story to Substance
Throughout much of 2024 and into 2025, returns were heavily skewed toward a narrow group of AI beneficiaries. Now we are seeing:This rotation is constructive: it broadens the leadership of the market and reduces the fragility that comes with extreme concentration in a handful of megacap growth names.
2. The New York Fed and the Path to a December Cut
A key November development was the dovish messaging shift from the New York Fed governor, increasing the probability of a December rate cut to about 70%.
Why This Matters
- Discount Rate Relief – Lower rate expectations ease valuation pressure.
- Sentiment Inflection – Investors now see the Fed balancing risks rather than solely fighting inflation.
- Seasonality Tailwind – Historically strong December returns + policy support = constructive environment.
Investors should use volatility to rotate into high-quality businesses rather than chase speculative growth moves.3. Bitcoin vs Gold: What the Last Decade Actually Tells Us
The 2017–2026 period provides an unusually rich dataset because it includes several Bitcoin cycles, a historic inflation regime, multiple policy shifts, and major crypto-specific events. The data contradicts many popular narratives.
3.1 Bitcoin and Inflation: The Hedge That Wasn’t
The 2020–2022 inflation spike should have validated Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative. Instead:3.2 Bitcoin, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar: A More Plausible, Yet Inconsistent, Story
The dollar narrative is more plausible: both assets often rise when the U.S. dollar weakens.
Dollar Strengthening (May 2021 – Sept 2022)
Dollar Weakening (Sept 2022 – Sept 2023)
- Bitcoin: positive returns
- Gold: positive returns
But Bitcoin’s movements are far more volatile and often decoupled from the USD due to internal crypto events.3.3 Idiosyncratic Drivers: Why Bitcoin Is Primarily a Risk Asset
Bitcoin’s major moves are best explained by crypto-specific catalysts:
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
- China mining ban (May 2021)
- FTX collapse (Nov 2022)
These events overshadow macro factors like inflation and currency moves, confirming Bitcoin is a high-beta, event-driven asset.3.4 Gold vs Bitcoin: Correlation, Role, and Reality
The long-term correlation between Bitcoin and gold is only 0.13—functionally uncorrelated.- Gold remains a diversifier and partial store-of-value.
- Bitcoin remains a speculative satellite allocation, not a macro hedge.
Recent divergence highlights this reality:4. Strategic Implications for Investors
Closing Thoughts
November 2025 reinforces a key investing truth: markets evolve, narratives decay, and data clarifies reality.
The AI-driven rally is maturing. The Fed is shifting toward balance. Bitcoin’s mythos is giving way to empiricism. Investors who distinguish rotation from crisis and ground decisions in evidence—not storylines—will be best positioned for long-term success.
Larry McKay
Zynergy Ventures, LLC and Zynergy Holdings, LLC (collectively referred to as "Zynergy") is a private investment firm. This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities. The content herein discusses broad market, industry, or sector trends, as well as general economic, market, or political conditions. It has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, investment advice, or any specific investment recommendation.
The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Zynergy. These views are current as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Neither the authors nor Zynergy assumes any obligation to update or revise any statements to reflect new information or future events.
Zynergy and individuals or entities affiliated with it may hold positions in or conduct transactions involving securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. Zynergy may also offer related investment strategies to third parties for compensation within asset classes mentioned or discussed herein.
Investment ideas and concepts mentioned may not be suitable for all investors depending on individual investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances. Margin requirements, transaction costs, commissions, and tax implications should be carefully reviewed with the guidance of qualified investment and tax professionals.
All information contained in this commentary is believed to be accurate and obtained from public sources deemed reliable as of the date of issuance. However, no warranty, express or implied, is provided regarding the completeness or accuracy of such information. Past performance does not predict future returns.